FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 was supposed to settle the debate over race, redistricting and representation. Instead, it started new ones. Since the act prohibits states from reducing a minority ...

Almost since its founding, FiveThirtyEight has published comprehensive averages of polls for a wide variety of questions related to U.S. politics. In June 2023, we debuted a new set of models for ...

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. There is a lot to talk about here, clearly! But let’s start with the basics — what the heck is going ...

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk, might not have any credibility as a pollster in FiveThirtyEight’s rating system, but he’s a pollster ...

I’m not that impressed by long-term projections of Democratic doom in the Senate. Mostly that’s because I’m not that impressed by long-term political projections in general. Political ...

In a bit of electoral déjà vu, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock won Georgia’s runoff on Tuesday, almost two years after he won a special election runoff to help hand Democrats a narrow 50-50 ...

In June, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito and the court’s ultra-conservative majority wrote that they were sending the issue of abortion back to the voters. The voters are displeased.

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. After hitting a low of 37.5 percent in July, President Biden’s approval rating has ticked up over 5 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s ...

With the NFL season nearly upon us, every player in football is out to prove something. Some are battling for starting jobs or trying to validate the hype around their potential; others merely ...