Based on 538's latest analysis of presidential polls, Trump now has the barest advantage in the race, with a 52-in-100 chance to win.

Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump stands on stage with steelworkers as he speaks at a campaign rally, Saturday, Oct.

Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast "flipping" to Trump,

In the United States, the president is not elected by the popular vote but in a system known as the electoral college.

FREELAND, MI – U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson believes Michigan is “ground zero” in the battle for the presidency. “Michigan matters more than most, you know that,” Johnson said. “How Michigan goes, so goes the country.”

While many of the questions seemed more like vituperative venting about the presidential candidates, others were constructive and interesting. They ranged from questions about the Electoral College to specific inquiries about why ballots in some counties look the way they do.

Francisca Shaw said she knew something was deeply wrong as she was rushed into an emergency cesarean for the delivery of her third child, a daughter, at Seattle's University of Washington Medical Center in 2015.

Through Election Day and beyond, the AP will deploy more than 4,000 freelancers to election offices around the country to track and tally counts in real time. They will call in those numbers to about 800 vote entry clerks, who crunch the numbers and check them for accuracy.

In the final sprint to Election Day, dollars and eyeballs are flocking to prediction markets that offer ever-changing odds of Trump or Harris winning the race.

The Arizona economy is flourishing by many measures. It just doesn't feel that way for many voters in the presidential battleground state as they consider which candidate to vote for in next month’s election.

Four accounts on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket that placed large bets on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election, and have been the subject of much online speculation, are owned by non-Americans or a non-American,