Learn how to calculate Value at Risk (VaR) to effectively assess financial risks in portfolios, using historical, variance-covariance, and Monte Carlo methods.

c) On sober reflection, what’s most likely to happen. The weighted average of these is your most probability forecast. Calculate it using the formula [a + b + (4 x c)].

When scientists spot an asteroid whose trajectory might take it close to Earth, they monitor it frequently and calculate the probability that it might collide with our planet.

At the time of the announcement in January, the asteroid’s impact probability was reported to exceed 1%. The impact probability describes how likely a hazardous asteroid is to hit Earth.

Forecasters use a specific formula to calculate rain chances: Probability of Precipitation (PoP)= Confidence (C) x Area with ...

I was preparing for my early morning class back in January 2025 when I received a notice regarding an asteroid called 2024 YR4. It said the probability it could hit Earth was unusually high. As ...