Functional safety engineers follow the ISA/IEC 61511 standard and perform calculations based on random hardware failures. These result in very low failure probabilities, which are then combined with ...

Bayesian inference is attractive due to its internal coherence and for often having good frequentisi properties. However, eliciting an honest prior may be difficult, and common practice is to take an ...

We propose a new data-augmentation strategy for fully Bayesian inference in models with binomial likelihoods. The approach appeals to a new class of Pólya–Gamma distributions, which are constructed in ...

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...

How likely you think something is to happen depends on what you already believe about the circumstances. That is the simple ...